US Economic data was contradictory . While GDP contracted in Q1, employment data was stronger than expected. USD corrected higher and\u00a0<\/span><\/b>US Equities also rallied on improvement in US-China trade issues, with China easing tariff on nearly 25% of imports from US. There seems to be informal discussions to find a solution to trade issues.<\/b><\/p>\nThe US Dollar recovery continues to be driven by tariff developments at this stage with Federal Reserve interest rate expectations taking a backfoot. JPY declined as BOJ\u2019S economic assessment implies that rates will be on hold.<\/b><\/p>\n
After the jobs data, the U.S. rate futures market lowered its expectations for a June rate cut by the Fed, reducing the probability to 35.6% from about 58% on Thursday. Overall, the market now predicts rate cuts totaling 80 basis points (bps), or roughly three 25-bps cuts, compared to the 100 bps of cuts expected earlier this week.<\/b><\/p>\n
Fed is expected to maintain status quo in this week\u2019s upcoming meeting.<\/b>\u00a0Fed Chair Jay Powell emphasized the need to maintain price stability and prevent temporary price hikes from becoming long-term inflation.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\nUS economy unexpectedly contracted in the Q1, with GDP shrinking at an annualized rate of -0.3%, marking the first decline since Q2 2022 and falling well short of expectations for modest 0.4% growth.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\nThe surprise contraction was driven by a surge in imports and a pullback in government spending, which more than offset gains in investment, consumer spending, and exports.<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/b>GDP price index jumped to 3.7% yoy, significantly above the 3.1% yoy forecast and accelerating from 2.3% yoy in Q4.<\/span><\/b><\/b><\/p>\nUS NFP data showed that labor market remains strong with 177k job additions.<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/b>March data was revised down from 228k to 185k, tempering some of the headline strength. 12 month average is 152k.<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/b>Unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, in line with expectations.<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/b>Average hourly earnings rose just 0.2% mom, below the 0.3% mom forecast, bringing the year-over-year growth rate to 3.8%.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\nUS core PCE price index, Fed\u2019s preferred inflation gauge, came in flat on a monthly basis in March, undershooting expectations of 0.1% mom rise.<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/b>On a year-over-year basis, core PCE inflation eased from 3.0% to 2.6%, offering some reassurance that underlying price pressures are gradually moderating. Consumer Spending remained resilient, climbing 0.6% m\/m.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\nBoJ kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.50% today, by unanimous vote, in line with expectations.<\/span><\/b>\u00a0BOJ\u00a0<\/span><\/b>now projects Japan\u2019s real GDP to grow just 0.5% in fiscal 2025, down from the 1.1% forecast in January, and 0.7% in fiscal 2026 (downgraded from 1.0%).<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/b>BoJ acknowledged that \u201cJapan\u2019s economic growth is likely to moderate\u201d as global trade and policy uncertainty weigh on external demand and corporate profitability.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\nBank of England is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points on Thursday but isn\u2019t expected to adopt a significantly more cautious stance.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\nCrude declined as Saudi Arabia indicated that it will tolerate lower crude prices. Gold corrected as risk sentiment improved.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\nCurrency technical levels<\/b>: USDINR: 83.75 (Supports), 85.25 (resistance),<\/b><\/p>\n
EURINR:94.50(Support), 97.20\/98.70 (Resistance)<\/b><\/p>\n
GBPINR: Supports: 111.50\/110.50( supports), Resistance:114.30(Resistance).<\/b><\/p>\n
JPYINR: Resistance:59.60\/60.60, Supports: 57.40 (support).<\/b><\/p>\n
Hedging advise<\/b>: USDINR payables be hedged at 83.75\/83.30. USD Exports be covered on rally and till 85.50 is not breached. EUR receivables be covered as per comfort. \u00a0GBP receivables can be covered at 114+
\n<\/b><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Click to open an Account<\/strong>\u00a0:\u00a0https:\/\/ekyc.gwcindia.in\/client\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n
For all your investment needs feel free to reach us.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n
\n
Give us Missed Call us on 90037 90027 . For Support : 044-40329999<\/strong><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Weekly SYNOPSIS: 02\/05\/2025 Currency Map: Currency Pairs Apr CLOSE March CLOSE % change USD\/INR 84.54 85.54 -1.16 EUR\/INR 96.73 92.32 4.77 GBP\/INR 113.87 110.74 2.82 JPY\/INR 59.62 56.75 5.05 Brent Crude closed at USD 61 VS previous month close of USD 74.50. Gold closed at USD 3288 in April. Nifty closed at 24334 vs prior […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":13042,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"image","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13256","post","type-post","status-publish","format-image","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-currency-update","post_format-post-format-image"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13256","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13256"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13256\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13257,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13256\/revisions\/13257"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13042"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13256"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13256"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13256"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}