{"id":14568,"date":"2025-08-04T11:28:02","date_gmt":"2025-08-04T05:58:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/?p=14568"},"modified":"2025-08-04T11:28:02","modified_gmt":"2025-08-04T05:58:02","slug":"fx-weekly-update-11","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/fx-weekly-update-11\/","title":{"rendered":"FX – WEEKLY UPDATE :"},"content":{"rendered":"

Weekly SYNOPSIS: 01\/08\/2025<\/b><\/p>\n

Currency Map:<\/b><\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Currency Pairs<\/b><\/td>\nWEEK CLOSE<\/b><\/td>\nPRIOR WEEK CLOSE<\/b><\/td>\n% change<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USD\/INR<\/b><\/td>\n87.51<\/b><\/td>\n86.53<\/b><\/td>\n1.13<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
EUR\/INR<\/b><\/td>\n99.88<\/b><\/td>\n101.73<\/b><\/td>\n-1.81<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GBP\/INR<\/b><\/td>\n115.34<\/b><\/td>\n116.79<\/b><\/td>\n-1.24<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
JPY\/INR<\/b><\/td>\n58.04<\/b><\/td>\n58.87<\/b><\/td>\n-1.4<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
 <\/td>\n <\/td>\n <\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Brent Crude closed at USD 69.50 VS previous week close of USD 68.50. Gold closed at USD 3362. Nifty closed at 24565 vs prior week close of 24837. 10 Year G-SEC Yield is now at 6.37%.<\/span><\/b><\/b><\/p>\n

Major developments<\/span><\/b>: USDINR traded in the 86.41-87.75 range last week, and Rupee declined 1 Rs against USD w\/w. EUR declined 1.81% w\/w and GBP declined 1.24% w\/w against Rupee.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Indian benchmark Equity indices declined 1.08% w\/w. 10 Year G-SEC Yield closed at 6.37%.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

1-year fwd premia is at 1.95% p.a.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

FX reserves stood at USD 698 bn, as on July 25 th. Reserves climbed US D 2.7 bn w\/w.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

In July, FII\u2019S have sold 24723 Cr of Indian Equities and have sold Rs 1880\u00a0 cr of debt.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

<\/a>Rupee\u00a0<\/span><\/b>declined due to multiple factors. FII selling, month end demand and USD index strength were added contributors to US imposition of 25% tariff. As India-US trade deal did not meet final timeline of Aug 1 st, US President imposed 25% tariff and warned of further penalties if India continues to buy Russian Oil. Indian Govt took a measured and calm approach, assuring industry and farmers of safeguarding their interests, while continuing to engage with US on trade talks.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

RBI\u2019S intervention at 87.70 and on hopes of moderating tariffs in coming months, helped Rupee to stabilise.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Indian PMI(mfrg) climbed to 59.1 in July from 58.4 in June.<\/span><\/b>\u00a0New orders increased at the fastest pace in nearly five years, buoyed by favourable market conditions and marketing efforts. That propelled output growth to a 15-month high.\u00a0International demand continued to support overall sales although growth in export orders moderated from June\u2019s more than 17-year high. GST collections climbed 7.5% to 1.96 lac cr in July.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Focus will be on RBI MPC meeting, which may cut rates by 25 bps.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a>Expect USDINR to trade in the 86.80-86.70\/86.35 zone in coming weeks.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/a>Hedging advise<\/b>: Imports can be hedged at 86.80\/86.35 and exports can be hedged at 87.50\/87.75.<\/b><\/p>\n

Global developments<\/span><\/b><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a>:<\/span><\/b><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a>\u00a0<\/b><\/a>USD declined sharply following disappointing July jobs data and a huge downward revision to May and June data.<\/span><\/b>\u00a0U.S. non-farm payrolls rose just 73k in July, well short of the expected 102k. Unusually large revisions made the picture worse\u2014June\u2019s job growth was slashed from 147k to a mere 14k. Unemployment rate edged up from 4.1% to 4.2% as expected, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month, keeping the annual pace at 3.9%. On the contrary to employment data, GDP and US Personal spending data were robust.<\/span><\/b>\u00a0US Q2 GDP blew past expectations with a 3.0% annualized growth rate.<\/b><\/p>\n

Federal Open Market Committee held interest rates on Wednesday in a split decision that gave little indication of when borrowing costs might be lowered. Fed rate is now at 4.25% to 4.5%. Fed Chairman said that no decision has been made for Sept.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Two dissenting Fed members issued rare public statements today defending their dissenting votes in favor of a rate cut at this week\u2019s FOMC meeting. Both argued that a more proactive approach was needed to support the economy amid slowing growth and labor market softening.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

US core PCE index held at 2.8% yoy, above market expectations of 2.7% yoy. Headline PCE inflation also rose more than expected from 2.4% yoy to 2.6% yoy.\u00a0<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

US President signed tariff orders with tariffs ranging from 14% to 41%.<\/span><\/b>\u00a0European Union signed a framework agreement last Sunday, easing tariff concerns and boosting expectations for future energy demand. U.S.\u2013EU agreement announced last Sunday sets a 15% tariff on most European exports to the United States, down from a threatened 30%. It includes a commitment by the EU to buy $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products over the coming years.<\/b><\/p>\n

France and Germany raised apprehensions over the impact of EU-US trade deal.<\/b><\/p>\n

Focus will be on US ISM (services) and BOE meeting.<\/b><\/p>\n

Currency technical levels<\/b>: USDINR: 86.90\/86.70 (Supports), 87.75 (resistance),<\/b><\/p>\n

EURINR:99.50(Support), 101.80\/102.35 (Resistance)<\/b><\/p>\n

GBPINR: Supports: 114.85 (supports), Resistance:117.30.<\/b><\/p>\n

JPYINR: Resistance:59.20\/59.90 Supports: 58 (support).<\/b><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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Give us Missed Call us on 90037 90027 . For Support : 044-40329999<\/strong><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Weekly SYNOPSIS: 01\/08\/2025 Currency Map: Currency Pairs WEEK CLOSE PRIOR WEEK CLOSE % change USD\/INR 87.51 86.53 1.13 EUR\/INR 99.88 101.73 -1.81 GBP\/INR 115.34 116.79 -1.24 JPY\/INR 58.04 58.87 -1.4         Brent Crude closed at USD 69.50 VS previous week close of USD 68.50. Gold closed at USD 3362. Nifty closed at […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":14441,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"image","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14568","post","type-post","status-publish","format-image","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-currency-update","post_format-post-format-image"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14568","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14568"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14568\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14570,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14568\/revisions\/14570"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14441"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14568"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14568"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14568"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}