{"id":16619,"date":"2026-02-09T10:26:46","date_gmt":"2026-02-09T04:56:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/?p=16619"},"modified":"2026-02-09T10:27:03","modified_gmt":"2026-02-09T04:57:03","slug":"fx-weekly-update-20","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/fx-weekly-update-20\/","title":{"rendered":"FX – WEEKLY UPDATE :"},"content":{"rendered":"

Weekly SYNOPSIS: 06\/02\/2025<\/b><\/p>\n

Currency Map:<\/b><\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Currency Pairs<\/b><\/td>\nWEEK \u00a0CLOSE<\/b><\/td>\nPRIOR WEEK CLOSE<\/b><\/td>\n% change<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USD\/INR<\/b><\/td>\n90.63<\/b><\/td>\n91.89<\/b><\/td>\n-1.37<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
EUR\/INR<\/b><\/td>\n106.68<\/b><\/td>\n109.56<\/b><\/td>\n-2.7<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GBP\/INR<\/b><\/td>\n122.74<\/b><\/td>\n126.28<\/b><\/td>\n-2.80<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
JPY\/INR<\/b><\/td>\n57.64<\/b><\/td>\n59.72<\/b><\/td>\n-3.48<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Brent Crude closed at USD 68 VS previous year close of USD 69. Gold closed at USD 4980. Nifty closed at 25693 vs prior year close of 25320. 10 Year G-SEC Yield is now at 6.69%.<\/span><\/b><\/b><\/p>\n

Major developments<\/span><\/b>: USDINR traded in the 90-91.82 range last week, and Rupee gained 1.37% against USD w\/w. EUR declined 2.7% w\/w and GBP declined 2.8% w\/w against Rupee.\u00a0<\/span><\/b>USDINR fwd premia closed at 2.50% for 1 year.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Indian benchmark Equity indices climbed 1.47% w\/w. 10 Year G-SEC Yield closed at 6.69%.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

<\/a>FX reserves stood at USD 723 bn, as on Jan 30 th. Reserves climbed 14.4 bn w\/w.<\/span><\/b><\/a><\/p>\n

In Feb 2026 tii date, FII\u2019S have bought Rs 6223 Cr of Indian Equities and sold Rs 278 cr of debt.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Rupee gained to 90 levels from prior week levels of 91.89, aided by announcement of India-US trade deal on Tuesday.<\/span><\/b>\u00a0US slashed import duties to 18% from 50%. India seems to have agreed to buy more energy from US and rationalize import duties in coming months. It is also being mentioned that India will increase trade with US to USD 500 bn in next 5 years. The contours of trade deal will be announced in coming days\/weeks. However, the news till now is positive and this follows the recently concluded Free trade deal with EU.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

RBI kept rates on hold at 5.25%. FY 26 GDP is likely to be at 7.4%. Inflation is expected to average 2.1%. FY 27 Q1 GDP is expected to be 6.9% and inflation at 4%. RBI Governor said that RBI will be liquidity supportive and the average liquidity surplus is around Rs 75000 Cr.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

USDINR has strong support at 90 and if that breaks, the pair can target 89.25\/88.90 levels. The pair faces resistance at 90.85\/91.10 levels. Trade deal has shifted expectations of one way declining trend for Rupee. However, for capital flows to come back, stock market has to perform. Nifty 200 top stocks have reported 5.7% PAT growth y\/y. MID Cap companies have reported 17.26% y\/y and small cap has reported 19.3% PAT growth. Only a sustained capital inflows could help Rupee break 89.25 levels.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Indian CPI and IIP are important data events for coming week.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

<\/a>Important levels to watch are 90\/89.25 on the downside and 91.20 on the upside.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/a>Hedging advise<\/b>: Hedging be done according to policy objectives.<\/b><\/p>\n

Global developments<\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a>:<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/a><\/a>US data release was thin. ISM(mfrg) and ISM(services) remained in expansion mode. Jobs data could not be released due to Govt shutdown till Tuesday.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

USD rallied against majors in an unconvincing way. Focus was on US tech stocks, and commodities.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

US tech sector is under pressure as investors are now anxious about AI investment returns. Tech companies are investing USD 500 bn this year. Another fear is that AI may hit software companies due to automation power and pressure margins and drive software revenue lower. Even semiconductor chips are facing pressure, which was evident by meltdown in AMD stock price.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

BoE left Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%, in line with expectations. Despite the hold, the overall message retained a clear easing bias. The statement reiterated that Bank Rate is \u201clikely to be reduced further\u201d, but emphasized that future decisions will be finely judged and data-dependent, leaving the timing and pace of cuts firmly open.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

European Central Bank kept interest rates on hold Thursday again, with an unchanged policy likely for the foreseeable future given the economic backdrop of low inflation and steady growth.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

ECB\u00a0maintained its key deposit rate at 2%, the level it cut to in June last year when it stopped a year-long run of rate cuts from a record high of 4%.<\/span><\/b>\u00a0In a post-decision press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde flagged that the outlook for inflation had become more uncertain, adding that a strengthening euro could drive down prices.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

US employment data, CPI and retail sales are key data releases in coming week.<\/b><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Currency technical levels<\/b>: USDINR: 90\/89.25 (Supports), 91.20 (resistance),<\/b><\/p>\n

EURINR:106.25\/104.30(Support),\u00a0 (Resistance): 110.30<\/b><\/p>\n

GBPINR: Supports: 120.35(supports), Resistance:127.40.<\/b><\/p>\n

JPYINR: Resistance:60.30 Supports: 56.20\/54 (support).<\/b><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Click to open an Account<\/strong>\u00a0:\u00a0https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/open-demat-today\/<\/a><\/div>\n
\n

RNT<\/strong> : https:\/\/gudwil.in\/trade<\/a><\/p>\n

For all your investment needs feel free to reach us.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
Give us Missed Call us on 90037 90027 . For Support : 044-40329999<\/strong><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Weekly SYNOPSIS: 06\/02\/2025 Currency Map: Currency Pairs WEEK \u00a0CLOSE PRIOR WEEK CLOSE % change USD\/INR 90.63 91.89 -1.37 EUR\/INR 106.68 109.56 -2.7 GBP\/INR 122.74 126.28 -2.80 JPY\/INR 57.64 59.72 -3.48 Brent Crude closed at USD 68 VS previous year close of USD 69. Gold closed at USD 4980. Nifty closed at 25693 vs prior year […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":16461,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"image","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16619","post","type-post","status-publish","format-image","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-currency-update","category-finance","post_format-post-format-image"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16619","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16619"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16619\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16621,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16619\/revisions\/16621"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16461"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16619"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16619"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16619"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}