{"id":17774,"date":"2026-05-18T10:07:33","date_gmt":"2026-05-18T04:37:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/?p=17774"},"modified":"2026-05-18T10:07:33","modified_gmt":"2026-05-18T04:37:33","slug":"fx-weekly-update-23","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/fx-weekly-update-23\/","title":{"rendered":"FX – WEEKLY UPDATE :"},"content":{"rendered":"

Weekly SYNOPSIS: 15\/05\/2026<\/b><\/p>\n

Currency Map:<\/b><\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Currency Pairs<\/b><\/td>\nWEEK \u00a0CLOSE<\/b><\/td>\nPRIOR WEEK CLOSE<\/b><\/td>\n% change<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USD\/INR<\/b><\/td>\n95.92<\/b><\/td>\n94.47<\/b><\/td>\n1.53<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
EUR\/INR<\/b><\/td>\n111.63<\/b><\/td>\n110.92<\/b><\/td>\n0.64<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GBP\/INR<\/b><\/td>\n128.10<\/b><\/td>\n128.31<\/b><\/td>\n-0.16<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
JPY\/INR<\/b><\/td>\n60.54<\/b><\/td>\n60.24<\/b><\/td>\n0.49<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
 <\/td>\n <\/td>\n <\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Brent Crude closed at USD 109 VS previous week close of USD 102. Gold closed at USD 4540. Nifty closed at 23643 vs prior week close of 24176. 10 Year G-SEC Yield is now at 7.06%.<\/span><\/b><\/b><\/p>\n

Major developments<\/span><\/b>: USDINR traded in the 94.88-96.15 range last week, and Rupee declined 1.53% w\/w against USD. EUR climbed 0.64% w\/w and GBP declined 0.16% against Rupee.\u00a0<\/span><\/b>USDINR fwd premia closed at 3.18% for 1 year.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Indian benchmark Equity indices declined 2.2% w\/w. 10 Year G-SEC Yield closed at 7.06%.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

<\/a>FX reserves stood at USD 697 bn, as on May 8 th. Reserves increased USD 6.3 bn w\/w.<\/span><\/b><\/a><\/p>\n

In May, FII\u2019S have sold Rs 19024 Cr of Indian Equities and have sold Rs 131 cr of debt.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Rupee\u2019s fall was unabated as Oil price rally and FII pullout continued. There is no visible resistance for Rupee fall. Rupee\u2019s fall and Oil price was felt in WPI, which soared to 8.3%.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Pressure on FX and Rupee is evident from PM\u2019S call to save fuel, work from home, avoid unnecessary foreign trips and transition to EV. Gold and Silver duty were hiked to 15%. Petrol and diesel prices were increased modestly by Rs 3. Govt also banned sugar exports and imposed export duty of 3% on Petrol exports. Some more measures are expected to boost USD flows.<\/span><\/b><\/b><\/p>\n

India and UAE signed strategic petroleum reserve pact.\u00a0<\/span><\/b>United Arab Emirates will\u00a0accelerate expansion of a major oil pipeline through Fujairah by 2027, significantly increasing export capacity that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz altogether.<\/b><\/p>\n

April trade deficit widened to USD 28.4 bn vs USD 20.67 bn in March. Merchandise Exports climbed to USD 43.56 bn from USD 38.92 bn in March. Imports rose to USD 71.94 bn vs USD 59.59 bn in March. Services exports was USD 37.24 bn and services imports stood at USD 16.66 bn. Overall deficit was USD 7.82 bn.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

WPI climbed sharply to 8.3% in April due to rise in prices of mineral oils, natural gas and manufactured goods. Fuel and power inflation jumped to 24.71% in April. Manufactured products inflation rose 4.62% in April. Food inflation was stable.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

<\/a>Technically, USDINR has supports at 95.15\/94.80 levels. The path of least resistance is Rupee fall to 97.50.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/a>Hedging advise<\/b>: Hedging be done according to policy objectives.<\/b><\/p>\n

Global developments<\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a>:<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/b><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a>USD climbed as risk sentiment deteriorated as Trump-Xi summit\u00a0failed to deliver a credible diplomatic breakthrough on the Strait of Hormuz, forcing markets to begin pricing a longer-lasting inflation shock tied to prolonged energy disruption.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Global yields climbed steeply with US 10 Year yield at 4.59% as Oil prices stayed closer to USD 110 with no signs of de-escalation and opening of Hormuz straits. Global bonds have been under pressure throughout the week due to hot inflation readings in multiple large economies\u00a0<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Trump last weekend rejected Iran\u2019s response to a U.S. proposal to end hostilities and said an ongoing ceasefire between the warring parties was on “massive life support.”<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

US<\/span><\/b>\u00a0April CPI showed headline inflation accelerating from 3.3% yoy to 3.8% yoy, while core CPI rose from 2.6% yoy to 2.8% yoy, both slightly above expectations. The firmer core readings in particular raised concern that energy-driven inflation pressures may now be spreading more broadly into underlying consumer prices. PPI was also higher.<\/span><\/b>\u00a0Fed rate expectations shifted further in response. Futures markets continued reducing expectations for policy easing this year, while\u00a0implied odds of an additional Fed hike by year-end rose toward 40%.\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

Saudi Aramco Chairman said that demand rationing of Oil will continue till Hormuz straits is closed. Oil supply recovery will be impacted till 2027 and he added that 100 mn bbls of supply will be disrupted for every week of straits closure.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

US Equities continued to rally, despite Friday\u2019s decline supported by AI enthusiasm .<\/b><\/p>\n

Currency technical levels<\/b>: USDINR: 95.15\/94.85(support) , (Resistance)<\/b><\/p>\n

EURINR:110.35(Support),\u00a0 (Resistance): 112.50<\/b><\/p>\n

GBPINR: Supports: 126(supports), Resistance:130.85<\/b><\/p>\n

JPYINR: Resistance:61.30\/62.25 Supports: 60\/59 (support).<\/b><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Weekly SYNOPSIS: 15\/05\/2026 Currency Map: Currency Pairs WEEK \u00a0CLOSE PRIOR WEEK CLOSE % change USD\/INR 95.92 94.47 1.53 EUR\/INR 111.63 110.92 0.64 GBP\/INR 128.10 128.31 -0.16 JPY\/INR 60.54 60.24 0.49         Brent Crude closed at USD 109 VS previous week close of USD 102. Gold closed at USD 4540. Nifty closed at […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":17677,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"image","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17774","post","type-post","status-publish","format-image","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-currency-update","post_format-post-format-image"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17774","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17774"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17774\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17776,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17774\/revisions\/17776"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17677"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17774"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17774"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17774"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}