{"id":18308,"date":"2026-07-06T10:38:49","date_gmt":"2026-07-06T05:08:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/?p=18308"},"modified":"2026-07-06T10:39:35","modified_gmt":"2026-07-06T05:09:35","slug":"fx-weekly-update-28","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/fx-weekly-update-28\/","title":{"rendered":"FX – WEEKLY UPDATE :"},"content":{"rendered":"

Weekly SYNOPSIS: 03\/07\/2026<\/strong><\/p>\n

Currency Map:<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
 <\/p>\n

Currency Pairs<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

WEEK CLOSE<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

PRIOR WEEK CLOSE<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

% change<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

 <\/p>\n

USD\/INR<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

95.20<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

94.41<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

0.83<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

 <\/p>\n

EUR\/INR<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

109.15<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

107.36<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

1.67<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

 <\/p>\n

GBP\/INR<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

127.41<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

124.49<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

2.34<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

 <\/p>\n

JPY\/INR<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

59.25<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

58.38<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

1.49<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Brent Crude closed at USD 72 VS previous week close of USD 74. Gold closed at USD 4175. Nifty closed at 24270 vs prior week close of 24056. 10 Year G-SEC Yield is now at 6.71%.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Major developments<\/strong>: USDINR traded in the 94.24-95.39 range last week, and Rupee declined 79 ps w\/w against USD. EUR climbed 1.67% w\/w and GBP climbed 2.34% w\/w against Rupee. USDINR fwd premia closed at 2.67% for 1 year.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Indian benchmark Equity indices climbed 0.87% w\/w. 10 Year G-SEC Yield closed at 6.71%.<\/strong><\/p>\n

FX reserves stood at USD 667 bn, as on June 26 th. Reserves declined 5.65 bn w\/w. This is due to decline in Gold reserve valuations. Gold valuations declined USD 5.4 bn w\/w. This is attributed to fall in Gold prices, which is now at USD 4150.<\/strong><\/p>\n

In June, FII\u2019S have sold Rs 29171 Cr of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 32648 cr of debt.<\/strong><\/p>\n

FII inflows into G-sec has increased significantly after Govt\u2019s action of scrapping all taxes on FII investment in G-SEC. Debt market alone has attracted Rs 32648 Cr in June. FII selling in Equity markets has also tapered off, though they remained nett sellers in June.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Lower Crude and Gold prices should reduce trade deficit in coming months. With decline in FII outflows and increasing FCNR inflows, Rupee should gain. However, USD strength against Asian peers and arbitrage related flows may have contributed to a surprise steep fall last week. Stop loss triggers at 94.90 and withdrawal of state run banks bids also contributed to last week Rupee fall. The concerning factor is that USDINR pair movement is still guided by regular RBI interventions and without the same, Rupee is showing weakness, despite many positives in the last few weeks.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GST Collections surged 13.9% y\/y to Rs 1.94 lac Cr.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Technically, USDINR has supports at 94.90\/94.15 levels. Downside break of 94.90 could confirm that USDINR has made a temporary top at 95.39.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Hedging advise: Hedging be done according to policy objectives.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Global developments:<\/strong>\u00a0Market was dominated by multiple narratives and the focus has shifted from Gulf war impact to policy actions.<\/strong><\/p>\n

US rate expectations were tempered after US employment data, which showed that labor market is still resilient, but seems to be cooling. Steep decline in Oil prices, along with lower than expected jobs data have reduced chances of Fed rate hike in Sept. Fed will get more time to reflect on labor market and inflationary impact of recent developments. \u00a0ISM Manufacturing Index remained in expansionary territory for the sixth consecutive month.<\/strong><\/p>\n

US Non-Farm Payrolls rose just 57k, far below expectations of 114k, while May was revised down from 172k to 129k.<\/strong>\u00a0Unemployment slipped from 4.3% to 4.2%, while wage growth stayed robust at 0.3% mom and rose from 3.4% to 3.5% yoy.\u00a0Weaker than expected jobs data may give more time to FED to assess the situation before moving rates higher.<\/strong><\/p>\n

US manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory in June but lost some momentum, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI easing from 54.0 to 53.3, below expectations of 54.2.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Euro remains pressured by rapidly fading expectations of further ECB tightening after softer inflation data.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Japanese authorities are looking to do surprise intervention to stem further Yen decline.<\/strong><\/p>\n

US Fed and ECB minutes and US ISM(services) are key data events for the coming week.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Technically, EUR\/USD is still looking bearish and only an upside break of 1.1650 will change the outlook.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gold had a two way movement and ended the week higher as US rate hike expectations receded.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Currency technical levels<\/strong>: USDINR: 94.90\/94.15(support) , (Resistance) 94.45\/95.85<\/strong><\/p>\n

EURINR:106.50(Support),\u00a0 (Resistance): 109.50\/110.30<\/strong><\/p>\n

GBPINR: Supports: 122.50(supports), Resistance:127.70<\/strong><\/p>\n

JPYINR: Resistance:59.70 Supports: 58.20\/57.50 (support).<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/div>\n
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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Weekly SYNOPSIS: 03\/07\/2026 Currency Map:     Currency Pairs     WEEK CLOSE     PRIOR WEEK CLOSE     % change     USD\/INR     95.20     94.41     0.83     EUR\/INR     109.15     107.36     1.67     GBP\/INR     127.41     124.49 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":18019,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"image","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18308","post","type-post","status-publish","format-image","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-currency-update","post_format-post-format-image"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18308","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18308"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18308\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18311,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18308\/revisions\/18311"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18019"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18308"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18308"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18308"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}