{"id":4993,"date":"2023-12-15T09:57:53","date_gmt":"2023-12-15T04:27:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gwcindia.in\/blog\/\/?p=4993"},"modified":"2024-08-31T15:28:35","modified_gmt":"2024-08-31T09:58:35","slug":"fx-morning-update-december-15-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/fx-morning-update-december-15-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"FX – MORNING UPDATE :"},"content":{"rendered":"

FX Morning Update USD INR December 15, 2023<\/strong><\/h1>\r\n

USDINR opened at 83.28 y\u2019day and the pair traded in the 83.26-83.36 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.31,\u00a0loss of 9 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.40.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.35 on 14\/12<\/b>.\u00a0<\/b>Dec USD\/INR closed at 83.33 y\u2019day, loss of 12 ps for USD as compared to prior day\u2019s close of 83.45. Dec Euro\/INR closed at 91.10, GBP\/INR at 105.58 and Yen\/INR at 59.05. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.73% p.a<\/a>. \u00a0<\/a>FX reserves stood at USD 604 bn as on\u00a0<\/a>Dec 1 st. \u00a0FX reserves climbed USD 6 bn.<\/b><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\r\n

PAIRS<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

RBI REF RATE (14\/12)<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

USDINR<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.35<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

EURINR<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

90.86<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

GBPINR<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

105.35<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

JPYINR<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

58.82<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n

<\/a><\/a>In Dec, FPI\u2019S have bought Rs 16761 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 5596 Cr of debt . In\u00a0<\/b>2022-23 fiscal year, FII\u2019S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Benchmark Nifty climbed 256 points (1.23%) y\u2019day. US S&P climbed 12 points (0.26%) y\u2019day. Nikkei declined 0.80% and Hang Seng climbed 0.74% y\u2019day.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Euro is now at 1.0985, Pound at 1.2755, Yen at 142.13.<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Commodities:<\/u><\/b>\u00a0<\/u><\/b>Gold is now at USD 2032 and WT1Crude at USD 72\/Brent at USD 77.<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Interest<\/u><\/b>\u00a0rates<\/b>: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.96% and 3 m libor closed at 5.64%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.19%.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

<\/a>Economic<\/b><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a>\u00a0news<\/b>: Global and Indian Equities surged on optimism over USD rate cuts in 2024. This was fueled by Fed meeting outcome.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

USD declined further against Euro and Pound as both central bank statements were in contrast to Fed\u2019s dovish stance. Both these banks pushed back against rate cut expectations.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

BoE kept Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25%.BOE reiterated its stance that “monetary policy is likely to be restrictive for an extended period of time.” This suggests continued cautious approach towards easing monetary conditions, likely due to persistent inflationary pressures. The Bank further emphasized that “Further tightening in monetary policy would be required if there were evidence of more persistent inflationary pressures,” indicating readiness to adjust policy should inflation not moderate as expected.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

ECB kept interest rates unchanged, maintaining the main refinancing rate at 4.50% and the deposit rate at 4.00%, as was widely anticipated. In a significant update, ECB substantially lowered its headline inflation forecast for 2024 from 3.2% to 2.7%.\u00a0On the growth front, ECB\u2019s projections indicate modest economic performance, with growth averaging 0.6% for 2023, 0.8% for 2024.<\/b>\u00a0ECB<\/b>\u00a0reiterated that the current interest rates are positioned to substantially contribute to bringing inflation back to its target, provided they are \u201cmaintained for a sufficiently long duration.\u201d The ECB plans to continue following a \u201cdata-dependent approach\u201d to determine the \u201clevel and duration\u201d of policy restrictions.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

ECB President in her post-meeting press conference, made it clear that the governing council did not discuss a rate cut in their meeting. She underlined the ECB\u2019s vigilance, asserting the need to \u201ckeep our guard up\u201d and closely monitor data to ascertain if the recent decline in inflation is sustainable.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Data highlights:<\/b>\u00a0– US Weekly jobless claims dipped to 202k, retail sales climbed 0.3% m\/m.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

\u00a0<\/b>Friday\u2019s calendar\u00a0: – US industrial production<\/b><\/p>\r\n

-EU PMI(mfrg-flash) and PMI(services-flash)<\/b><\/p>\r\n

-UK PMI(mfrg-flash) and PMI(services-flash)<\/b><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\r\n

USD\/INR<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\u00a0<\/td>\r\n\r\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/b>83.36<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.26<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

EUR\/USD<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0985<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\u00a0<\/td>\r\n\r\n

1.1010<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0879<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

GBP\/USD<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2755<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\u00a0<\/td>\r\n\r\n

1.2795<\/span><\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2612<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

USD\/JPY<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

142.13<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\u00a0<\/td>\r\n\r\n

142.91<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

140.97<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n

Daily Support\/Resistance table<\/b><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\r\n

Currency Pairs<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

Pivot<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

R1<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

R2<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

R3<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

S1<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

S2<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

S3<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

EURO\/USD<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0961<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.1043<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.1091<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.1173<\/span><\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0912<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0831<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0782<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

GBP\/USD<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2726<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2840<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2909<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.3023<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2657<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2543<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2475<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

USD\/JPY<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

142.05<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

143.13<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

143.99<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

145.07<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

141.19<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

140.11<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

139.25<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

USD\/INR<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.31<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.36<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.41<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

\u00a0<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.26<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.21<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n

MAJOR<\/b>\u00a0<\/b>SUPPORTS\/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\r\n

Currency Pair<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

Supports<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

Resistances<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

Trend<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

Remarks<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

EURO\/USD<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0735\/1.0665<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0960\/1.1018<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

UP<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

DN<1.0735<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

GBP\/USD<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.25\/1.2325<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2745<\/span><\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

SIDE<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

DN<1.25<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

USD\/JPY<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

141.50<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

147.15\/149.70<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

DN<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

UP>149.70<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

USD\/INR<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.03\/82.80<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.47<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

UP<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

SIDE<83.02<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

USD\/CHF<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

0.8650<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

0.8820<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

DN<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

UP>0.8820<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n

Technicals<\/b>: Spot closed above 50 day average and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.34. 50 day moving average is at 83.26.200 day moving average is at 82.62. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.03\/82.80 and important resistance is at 83.48. Spot closed at the average level of the day.<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Intraday supports and resistances for Dec contract are:<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

PP: 83.34, S1:83.29, S2:83.25, R1:83.38, R2:83.43.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

However on directional basis, suggest the following:<\/b><\/p>\r\n

USD exports be hedged at 83.45\/83.50. Imports be hedged at 83.05 for 3 months.<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

EURO\/USD<\/b>:\u00a0The pair is above 50, but below 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0960\/1.1018.\u00a0Next major support is at 1.0735\/1.0665.\u00a0Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0735. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0450.<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

GBP\/USD<\/b>: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD\u00a0is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2735 and weekly MACD is\u00a0in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.25. Important support is at 1.25\/1.2325. Important resistance is at 1.2745.<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

USD\/YEN<\/b>: The pair is\u00a0below 50,100 day major averages, but above 200 day average. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 151.75. Important resistance is at 147.15\/149.70 and support is at 141.50.<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

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FX Morning Update USD INR December 15, 2023 USDINR opened at 83.28 y\u2019day and the pair traded in the 83.26-83.36 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.31,\u00a0loss of 9 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.40. RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.35 on 14\/12.\u00a0Dec USD\/INR closed at 83.33 y\u2019day, loss of 12 ps […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":4764,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"image","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4993","post","type-post","status-publish","format-image","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-currency-update","post_format-post-format-image"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4993","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4993"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4993\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8792,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4993\/revisions\/8792"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4764"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4993"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4993"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4993"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}