{"id":5266,"date":"2024-01-08T11:43:24","date_gmt":"2024-01-08T06:13:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gwcindia.in\/blog\/\/?p=5266"},"modified":"2024-09-02T11:45:02","modified_gmt":"2024-09-02T06:15:02","slug":"fx-weekly-currency-score-week-2-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/fx-weekly-currency-score-week-2-2\/","title":{"rendered":"FX – WEEKLY UPDATE :"},"content":{"rendered":"

FX Weekly Currency Score Week 2<\/span><\/h1>\r\n

WEEKLY SYNOPSIS: 05\/01\/2024<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Currency Map:<\/b><\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\r\n

Currency Pairs<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

WEEK CLOSE<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

PRIOR WEEK CLOSE<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

% change<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

USD\/INR<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.15<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.17<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

\u00a0<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

EUR\/INR<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

90.88<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

92<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

-1.21<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

GBP\/INR<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

105.35<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

106.10<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

-0.70<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

JPY\/INR<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

57.26<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

58.82<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

-2.65<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n

Brent Crude closed at USD 78 VS prior week close of USD 77. Gold closed at USD 2045. Nifty closed at 21710 vs prior wwek close of 21730. 10 Year G-SEC Yield closed at 7.23%.<\/span><\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Major developments<\/span><\/b>: USDINR traded in the 83.12-83.35 range in Dec and closed at 83.15, loss of 2 ps for USD as compared to prior week close of 83.17. EUR declined 1.21% w\/w and GBP declined 0.70 w\/w against Rupee. Indian benchmark Equity index closed flat w\/w. 10 Year G-SEC Yield closed at 7.23%. 1-year fwd premia is at 1.77% p.a.<\/span><\/b><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

FX reserves stood at USD 623 bn as on Dec 29 th.\u00a0 FX reserves climbed USD 2.75 bn, last week.<\/a>\u00a0In Jan, FPI\u2019S have bought Rs 2665 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 2632 Cr of debt . In\u00a0last calendar year, FII\u2019S have net bought Rs 172853 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 70489 Cr of debt.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

USDINR pair is facing stiff resistance at 83.35. There is lot of exports selling closer to 83.35. USDINR has not broken 83.40 since Oct 2022, on close basis. Since premia is very low, there is also equal interest to cover imports closer to 83.10.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Indian Dec PMI(services) rose to 59 from Mov reading of 56.9. Positive demand and favourable economic conditions were reasons behind buoyant reading. However PMI(mfrg) dipped to 54.9 in Dec. Composite PMI data rose to 3 month high of 58.5.<\/span><\/b>\u00a0Indian Dec GST collections climbed 10% y\/y to Rs 1.65 lac Cr. Core sector growth eased to 7 month low of 7.8%. in Nov, it was at 12%.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Expect USDINR to trade in the 83.03-83.30 range in coming week.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Focus will be on CPI and IIP data.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Hedging advise<\/b>: Imports be hedged closer to 83.05\/82.92\/82.80. Exports be hedged closer to 83.30\/83.35.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Global developments<\/span><\/b><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a>:\u00a0<\/span><\/b><\/a>USD rebounded as US yields crossed 4% again. Robust US employment data and weaker than expected EU PMI data seemed to support USD. However, participants are hesitant to take a USD bullish call ahead of US CPI data.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

US non-farm payroll employment grew 216k in December, above expectation of 168k. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%, below expectation of a rise to 3.8%. Participation rate fell from 62.8% to 62.5%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% mom, above expectation of 0.3% mom. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings increased 4.1% yoy.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Earlier in the week, FOMC minutes was released.<\/span><\/b>\u00a0Fed minutes showed central bank officials acknowledging progress against inflation over the past year. But the minutes also offered few cues on when the bank could potentially begin trimming interest rates as signalled during the meeting. The minutes showed policymakers concerned over a soft landing for the U.S. economy, and whether monetary policy was too restrictive.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

EU<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span>Core CPI (excluding energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) slowed from 3.6% yoy to 3.4% yoy, matched expectations.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Eurozone\u2019s PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 44.4 in December, up slightly from November\u2019s 44.2. Despite this minor uptick, marking a seven-month high, the index remained below the critical 50.0 threshold, signaling a continued deterioration in operating conditions across the sector.<\/b>\u00a0UK PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 46.2 in December, down from November\u2019s 47.2. This marks the seventeenth consecutive month where the index has remained below the neutral 50 threshold, indicating ongoing contraction.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Focus now shifts to US CPI. This reading is significant as Fed ponders over timing and size of rate cuts from Q2.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Currency technical levels<\/b>: USDINR: 83.03\/82.90\/82.80 (Supports), 83.35\/83.40 (resistance),<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

EURINR:92(Resistance),89.50\/88.75(Support),<\/b><\/p>\r\n

GBPINR: Supports: 104.20\/103.40( supports), Resistance:106.50(Resistance).<\/b><\/p>\r\n

JPYINR: Resistance:59, Supports: 56.45 (support).<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Hedging advise<\/b>: USDINR imports be hedged on decline to 82.92\/82.80. EUR and GBP exports can be covered.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Click to open an Account<\/strong>\u00a0:\u00a0https:\/\/ekyc.gwcindia.in\/client\/<\/a><\/div>\r\n
For all your investment needs feel free to reach us.<\/strong>\r\n
\r\n
\r\n\r\nGive us Missed Call us on 90037 90027 . For Support : 044-40329999<\/strong><\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FX Weekly Currency Score Week 2 WEEKLY SYNOPSIS: 05\/01\/2024 Currency Map: Currency Pairs WEEK CLOSE PRIOR WEEK CLOSE % change USD\/INR 83.15 83.17 \u00a0 EUR\/INR 90.88 92 -1.21 GBP\/INR 105.35 106.10 -0.70 JPY\/INR 57.26 58.82 -2.65 Brent Crude closed at USD 78 VS prior week close of USD 77. Gold closed at USD 2045. Nifty […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":3180,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"image","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5266","post","type-post","status-publish","format-image","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-currency-update","post_format-post-format-image"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5266","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5266"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5266\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9278,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5266\/revisions\/9278"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3180"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5266"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5266"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5266"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}