{"id":5802,"date":"2024-02-16T10:37:20","date_gmt":"2024-02-16T05:07:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gwcindia.in\/blog\/\/?p=5802"},"modified":"2024-08-31T16:21:18","modified_gmt":"2024-08-31T10:51:18","slug":"fx-morning-update-february-16-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/fx-morning-update-february-16-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"FX – MORNING UPDATE :"},"content":{"rendered":"

FX Morning Update USD INR February 16, 2024<\/h1>\r\n

USDINR opened at 82.99 y\u2019day and the pair traded in the 82.99-83.05 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.05,\u00a0gain of 3 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.02.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.02 on 15\/02<\/b>.\u00a0<\/b>Feb USD\/INR closed at 83.06, loss of 1 ps for USD as compared to prior day\u2019s close of 83.07. Feb Euro\/INR closed at 89.24, GBP\/INR at 104.28 and Yen\/INR at 55.48. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.72% p.a<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0<\/a><\/a>FX reserves stood at USD 622 bn, as on Feb 2 nd.<\/b><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\r\n

PAIRS<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

RBI REF RATE (15\/02)<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

USDINR<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.02<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

EURINR<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

89.06<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

GBPINR<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

104.32<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

JPYINR<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

55.27<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n

<\/a>In Feb, FPI\u2019S have sold Rs 4814 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 12501 Cr of debt . In\u00a0<\/b>last calendar year, FII\u2019S have net bought Rs 172853 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 70489 Cr of debt.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Benchmark Nifty climbed 71 points (0.32%) y\u2019day. US S&P climbed 29 points (0.58%) y\u2019day. Nikkei climbed 1.22% y\u2019day and Hang Seng climbed 0.41% y\u2019day.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Euro is now at 1.0762, Pound at 1.2583, Yen at 150.18.<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Commodities:<\/u><\/b>\u00a0<\/u><\/b>Gold is now at USD 2003 and WT1Crude at USD 78\/Brent at USD 82.70.<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Interest<\/u><\/b>\u00a0rates<\/b>: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.23% and 3 m libor closed at 5.52%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.08%.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

<\/a>Economic<\/b><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a>\u00a0news<\/b><\/a>:<\/b>\u00a0<\/a>US retail sales was subdued, reigniting hopes of rate cut in May. USD pulled back on weaker than expected sales data.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

UK slipped into recession with GDP declining.<\/b>\u00a0UK GDP contracted -0.3% qoq in Q4, worse than expectation of -0.1% qoq.\u00a0In FY 23, UK\u2019s GDP saw a meager 0.1% growth, a stark contrast to 4.3% expansion in 2022.\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\r\n

According to European Commission\u2019s Winter 2024 Economic Forecast, Eurozone\u2019s GDP growth for 2024 was revised notably downwards to 0.8% from Autumn\u2019s estimate of 1.2%, reflecting a more subdued outlook than previously anticipated.\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\r\n

ECB President highlighted that the \u201congoing disinflation process\u201d is expected to continue \u201cgradually further down over 2024,\u201d attributing this trend to the diminishing effects of past upward shocks and the impact of tighter financing conditions on inflation. She also noted a \u201cgradual decline\u201d in core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, while also pointing out the \u201csigns of persistence\u201d in services inflation.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Japan\u2019s economy also entered into technical recession as GDP unexpectedly contracted by -0.1% qoq in Q4, much worse than expectation of 0.3% qoq growth.\u00a0<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Data highlights:<\/b>\u00a0– US Weekly jobless claims dipped to 212k, retail sales declined -0.8% m\/m and core sales declined -0.6% m\/m and industrial production declined -0.1% m\/m<\/b><\/p>\r\n

-UK GDP declined -0.1% m\/m and -0.3% q\/q.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

-UK Industrial and manufacturing production climbed 0.6% and 0.8% m\/m respectively.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Friday\u2019s calendar\u00a0: –\u00a0\u00a0US PPI, Building permits and housing starts<\/b><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\r\n

USD\/INR<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\u00a0<\/td>\r\n\r\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/b>83.05<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

82.99<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

EUR\/USD<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0762<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\u00a0<\/td>\r\n\r\n

1.0785<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0724<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

GBP\/USD<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2583<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\u00a0<\/td>\r\n\r\n

1.2606<\/span><\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2542<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

USD\/JPY<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

150.18<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\u00a0<\/td>\r\n\r\n

150.56<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

149.54<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n

Daily Support\/Resistance table<\/b><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\r\n

Currency Pairs<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

Pivot<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

R1<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

R2<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

R3<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

S1<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

S2<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

S3<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

EURO\/USD<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0761<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0798<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0822<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0859<\/span><\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0737<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0700<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0676<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

GBP\/USD<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2582<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2622<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2646<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2686<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2558<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2518<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2495<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

USD\/JPY<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

150.02<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

150.50<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

151.04<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

151.52<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

149.48<\/span><\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

149<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

148.46<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

USD\/INR<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.03<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.07<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.09<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

\u00a0<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.01<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

82.97<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n

MAJOR<\/b>\u00a0<\/b>SUPPORTS\/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\r\n

Currency Pair<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

Supports<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

Resistances<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

Trend<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

Remarks<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

EURO\/USD<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0725<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0830\/1.0890<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

SIDE<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

UP>1.0890<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

GBP\/USD<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2480<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2695\/1.2775<\/span><\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

SIDE<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

UP>1.2775<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

USD\/JPY<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

146\/144.35<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

150<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

UP<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

DN<144.35<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

USD\/INR<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

82.80<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.18\/83.24<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

SIDE<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

UP>83.35<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

USD\/CHF<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

0.8330<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

0.8850<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

DN<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

SIDE>0.8550<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n

Technicals<\/b>: Spot closed below 20 and 50 day average but above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.05. 50 day moving average is at 83.14.200 day moving average is at 82.80. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 82.80 and important resistance is at 83.15. Spot closed \u00a0above the average level of the day.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Intraday supports and resistances for Feb contract are:<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

PP: 83.05, S1:83.02, S2:82.99, R1:83.08, R2:83.10.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

However on directional basis, suggest the following:<\/b><\/p>\r\n

USD exports be hedged at 83.35\/83.40. Imports be hedged at 82.92\/82.80 for 3 months.<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

EURO\/USD<\/b>:\u00a0The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0830\/1.0890.\u00a0Next major support is at 1.0725.\u00a0Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1275. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0450.<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

GBP\/USD<\/b>: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD\u00a0is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2810 and weekly MACD is\u00a0in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.25. Important support is at 1.2480. Important resistance is at 1.2695\/1.2775.<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

USD\/YEN<\/b>: The pair is\u00a0above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 145.90. Important resistance is at 150 and support is at 146\/144.35.<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Click to open an Account<\/strong>\u00a0:\u00a0https:\/\/ekyc.gwcindia.in\/client\/<\/a><\/p>\r\n

For all your investment needs feel free to reach us.<\/strong>\r\n
\r\n
\r\n\r\nGive us Missed Call us on 90037 90027 . For Support : 044-40329999<\/strong><\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FX Morning Update USD INR February 16, 2024 USDINR opened at 82.99 y\u2019day and the pair traded in the 82.99-83.05 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.05,\u00a0gain of 3 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.02. RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.02 on 15\/02.\u00a0Feb USD\/INR closed at 83.06, loss of 1 ps for […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":5677,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"image","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5802","post","type-post","status-publish","format-image","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-currency-update","post_format-post-format-image"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5802","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5802"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5802\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8874,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5802\/revisions\/8874"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5677"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5802"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5802"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5802"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}