{"id":6510,"date":"2024-05-16T09:48:48","date_gmt":"2024-05-16T04:18:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gwcindia.in\/blog\/\/?p=6510"},"modified":"2024-08-31T11:11:03","modified_gmt":"2024-08-31T05:41:03","slug":"fx-morning-update-may-16-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/fx-morning-update-may-16-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"FX – MORNING UPDATE :"},"content":{"rendered":"

FX Morning Update USD INR May 16, 2024<\/h1>\r\n

USDINR opened at 83.49 y\u2019day and the pair traded in the 83.46-83.51 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.51,\u00a0unchanged for USD as against prior close of 83.51.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.51 on 15\/05<\/b>.\u00a0<\/b>May USD\/INR closed at 83.55, loss of 1ps for USD as compared to prior day\u2019s close of 83.56. May Euro\/INR closed at 90.34, GBP\/INR at 105.19 and Yen\/INR at 53.58. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.69% p.a<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0<\/a><\/a>FX reserves stood at USD 641.50 bn, as on May 3 rd. Reserves increased by USD 3.6 bn w\/w.<\/b><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\r\n

PAIRS<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

RBI REF RATE (15\/05)<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

USDINR<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.51<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

EURINR<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

90.39<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

GBPINR<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

105.16<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

JPYINR<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

53.41<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n

<\/a><\/a>In May till date, FPI\u2019S have sold Rs 18933 Cr of Equities and sold Rs 1333 Cr of debt . In\u00a0<\/b>FY 23-24, FII\u2019S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Benchmark Nifty declined 17 points (0.08%) y\u2019day. US S&P climbed 25 points (0.48%) y\u2019day. Nikkei climbed 0.17%\u00a0\u00a0and Hang Seng declined 0.22% y\u2019day.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Euro is now at 1.0886, Pound at 1.2691, Yen at 153.95.<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Commodities:<\/u><\/b>\u00a0<\/u><\/b>Gold is now at USD 2388 and WT1Crude at USD 79\/Brent at USD 83.<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Interest<\/u><\/b>\u00a0rates<\/b>: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.32% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.09%.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

<\/a>Economic<\/b><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a>\u00a0news<\/b><\/a>:\u00a0<\/a><\/a>US CPI rose 0.3% mom in April, matched expectations. CPI core (ex food and energy) rose 0.3% mom, matched expectations. Energy index rose 1.1% mom while food index was unchanged. Over the 12-months, CPI slowed from 3.5% yoy to 3.4% yoy , matched expectations. CPI core slowed from 3.8% yoy to 3.6% yoy, matched expectations. Energy index rose 2.6% yoy while good index rose 2.2% yoy.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

US retail sales was flat in April, below expectation of 0.4% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 0.2% mom, matched expectations.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

USD declined and stocks rose on renewed optimism of Sept rate cut.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

ECB Governing Council member reiterated that a June interest rate cut is on the table, depending on the progress of inflation.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

US increased tariffs on some important Chinese imports. Wall street was powered high by hopes of rate cuts.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Data highlights:<\/b>\u00a0– US CPI climbed 0.3% m\/m and 3.4% y\/y. Core CPI also climbed 0.3% m\/m and retail sales was flat m\/m.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

-EU GDP climbed 0.3% q\/q and industrial production climbed 0.6% m\/m.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Thursday\u2019s calendar\u00a0: -US Weekly jobless claims<\/b><\/p>\r\n

-US building permits and housing starts<\/b><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\r\n

USD\/INR<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\u00a0<\/td>\r\n\r\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/b>83.51<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.46<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

EUR\/USD<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0886<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\u00a0<\/td>\r\n\r\n

1.0891<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0813<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

GBP\/USD<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2691<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\u00a0<\/td>\r\n\r\n

1.2694<\/span><\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2584<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

USD\/JPY<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

153.95<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\u00a0<\/td>\r\n\r\n

156.56<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

154.15<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n

\u00a0<\/b>Daily Support\/Resistance table<\/b><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\r\n

Currency Pairs<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

Pivot<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

R1<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

R2<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

R3<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

S1<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

S2<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

S3<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

EURO\/USD<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0864<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0915<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0942<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0993<\/span><\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0837<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0786<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0760<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

GBP\/USD<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2656<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2728<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2766<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2838<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2618<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2546<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2508<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

USD\/JPY<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

155.01<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

155.87<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

157.41<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

158.27<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

153.46<\/span><\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

152.61<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

151.06<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

USD\/INR<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.49<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.525<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.54<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

\u00a0<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.47<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.44<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n

MAJOR<\/b>\u00a0<\/b>SUPPORTS\/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\r\n

Currency Pair<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

Supports<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

Resistances<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

Trend<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

Remarks<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

EURO\/USD<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0735\/1.06<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.0885<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

UP<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

DN<1.0735<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

GBP\/USD<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.25<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.2710<\/span><\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

UP<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

DN<1.25<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

USD\/JPY<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

152<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

157\/160<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

UP<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

SIDE<152<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

USD\/INR<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.35\/83.17\/83.10<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.70<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

UP<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

SIDE<83.35<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

USD\/CHF<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

0.90\/0.8885<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

0.9230<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

UP<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

SIDE<0.90<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n

Technicals<\/b>: Spot closed above major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.46. 50 day moving average is at 83.24. 200 day moving average is at 83.06. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.35\/83.17\/83.10 and important resistance is at 83.70. Spot closed above the average level of the day.<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

PP: 83.53, S1:83.51, S2:83.48, R1:83.56, R2:83.58.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

However on directional basis, suggest the following:<\/b><\/p>\r\n

USD imports be hedged on decline to 83.25.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:<\/b><\/p>\r\n

EURO\/USD<\/b>:\u00a0The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0885.\u00a0Next major support is at 1.0735.\u00a0Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.06. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

GBP\/USD<\/b>: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD\u00a0is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23 and weekly MACD is\u00a0in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.25. Important resistance is at 1.2710.<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

USD\/YEN<\/b>: The pair is\u00a0above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 160. Important resistance is at 160 and support is at 151.85\/149.<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Click to open an Account<\/strong>\u00a0:\u00a0https:\/\/ekyc.gwcindia.in\/client\/<\/a><\/p>\r\n

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FX Morning Update USD INR May 16, 2024 USDINR opened at 83.49 y\u2019day and the pair traded in the 83.46-83.51 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.51,\u00a0unchanged for USD as against prior close of 83.51. RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.51 on 15\/05.\u00a0May USD\/INR closed at 83.55, loss of 1ps for USD as compared to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":6292,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"image","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6510","post","type-post","status-publish","format-image","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-currency-update","post_format-post-format-image"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6510","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6510"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6510\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8264,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6510\/revisions\/8264"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6292"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6510"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6510"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6510"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}