{"id":6591,"date":"2024-06-03T09:18:05","date_gmt":"2024-06-03T03:48:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gwcindia.in\/blog\/\/?p=6591"},"modified":"2024-08-31T11:05:19","modified_gmt":"2024-08-31T05:35:19","slug":"fx-weekly-currency-score-week-23","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/fx-weekly-currency-score-week-23\/","title":{"rendered":"FX – WEEKLY UPDATE :"},"content":{"rendered":"

FX Weekly Currency Score Week 23<\/h1>\r\n

Weekly SYNOPSIS: 31\/05\/2024<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Currency Map:<\/b><\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\r\n

Currency Pairs<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

MONTH CLOSE<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

APRIL CLOSE<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

% change<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

USD\/INR<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.42<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.42<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

0<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

EUR\/INR<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

90.12<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

89.34<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

0.87<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

GBP\/INR<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

105.92<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

104.64<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.22<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

JPY\/INR<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

53.08<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

53.25<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

-0.30<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n

Brent Crude closed at USD 81.70 VS previous month close of USD 86. Gold closed at USD 2327. Nifty closed at 22530 vs prior month close of 22604. 10 Year G-SEC Yield is now at 7.01%.<\/span><\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Major developments<\/span><\/b>: USDINR traded in the 83.03-83.54 range in May and closed at 83.42, unchanged for USD m\/m. EUR climbed 0.87% m\/m and GBP climbed 1.22 m\/m against Rupee. Indian benchmark Equity declined 0.3% m\/m. 10 Year G-SEC Yield closed at 7.01%. 1-year fwd premia is at 1.67% p.a.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Indian Q4 GDP climbed 7.8% in Q4 and GDP climbed 8.2% in 2023-24. In Q3, GDP climbed 8.3%. Mfrg climbed 9.9%, Mining grew by 7.4%, construction grew by 9.9% , Agri sector climbed 1.4%\u00a0 Private consumption climbed 4% and Govt consumption climbed 2.5%. Gross capital fixed formation climbed 9%.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Fiscal deficit improved to 5.63% as against budget estimate of 5.8% of GDP. GST collections climbed 10% y\/y to Rs 1.73 lac Cr.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

FX reserves stood at USD 646.6 bn, as on May 24 th. Reserves declined by USD 3.26 bn w\/w.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

<\/a><\/a>In May till date, FPI\u2019S have sold Rs 5433 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 2848 Cr of debt . In\u00a0<\/span><\/b>FY 23-24, FII\u2019S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Rupee showed some volatility on intra week basis as it swung between 83.24 and 83.50 range. RBI has till now controlled USDINR movement in a very tight range. It has absorbed FX inflows and stemmed Rupee gains in the past. With USD stagnating against majors, it is difficult to build a bearish narrative for Rupee.\u00a0 USDINR could trade in the broad 82.95-83.50 range in coming period.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

<\/a>Hedging advise<\/b>: Imports be hedged on decline to 83.15\/83.05. Exports be hedged in the 83.45\/83.50 range.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Global developments<\/span><\/b><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a>:\u00a0<\/span><\/b><\/a><\/a>Rally in US Yields and inflation jitters weighed down on asset markets and pulled down crosses. Hawkish comments from Fed members also contributed to paring down of rate cut expectations.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

US GDP climbed 1.3% annualized in Q1 as against estimate of 1.6%, dragged by personal spending which climbed only 2% as against expectation of 2.6%.Higher rates and slower income growth are contributing to drag in personal spending.<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/a>Annually, PCE price index was unchanged at 2.7% yoy. Core PCE price index was unchanged at 2.8% yoy. Both matched expectations.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Personal income rose 0.3% mom or USD 65.3B, matched expectations. Personal spending rose 0.2% mom or USD 39.1B, below expectation of 0.3% mom.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

EU CPI accelerated.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

ECB meeting, US nonfarm payrolls and ISM (mfrg) data will be focus events for the week.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Currency technical levels<\/b>: USDINR: 83.05 (Supports), 83.55 (resistance),<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

EURINR:90.90(Resistance),89.70(Support),<\/b><\/p>\r\n

GBPINR: Supports: 105.30\/103.90( supports), Resistance:106.35(Resistance).<\/b><\/p>\r\n

JPYINR: Resistance:54.85, Supports: 52.10 (support).<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Hedging advise<\/b>: USDINR imports be hedged on decline to 83.15\/83.05 . EUR nearby receivables be covered in the 90.50-90.90 zone. GBP receivables can be covered at 106+.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

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FX Weekly Currency Score Week 23 Weekly SYNOPSIS: 31\/05\/2024 Currency Map: Currency Pairs MONTH CLOSE APRIL CLOSE % change USD\/INR 83.42 83.42 0 EUR\/INR 90.12 89.34 0.87 GBP\/INR 105.92 104.64 1.22 JPY\/INR 53.08 53.25 -0.30 Brent Crude closed at USD 81.70 VS previous month close of USD 86. Gold closed at USD 2327. Nifty closed […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":6592,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"image","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6591","post","type-post","status-publish","format-image","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-currency-update","post_format-post-format-image"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6591","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6591"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6591\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8246,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6591\/revisions\/8246"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6592"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6591"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6591"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6591"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}