{"id":6785,"date":"2024-07-08T10:33:12","date_gmt":"2024-07-08T05:03:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gwcindia.in\/blog\/\/?p=6785"},"modified":"2024-08-31T12:21:48","modified_gmt":"2024-08-31T06:51:48","slug":"fx-weekly-currency-score-week-27","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/fx-weekly-currency-score-week-27\/","title":{"rendered":"FX – WEEKLY UPDATE :"},"content":{"rendered":"

FX Weekly Currency Score Week 27<\/h1>\r\n

Weekly SYNOPSIS: 05\/07\/2024<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Currency Map:<\/b><\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\r\n

Currency Pairs<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

WEEK CLOSE<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

PRIOR WEEK CLOSE<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

% change<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

USD\/INR<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.47<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

83.38<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

0.10<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

EUR\/INR<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

90.37<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

89.25<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.25<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

GBP\/INR<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

106.65<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

105.46<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

1.12<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n

\r\n

JPY\/INR<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

51.97<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

51.86<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n

\r\n

0.21<\/b><\/p>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n

Brent Crude closed at USD 87 VS previous month close of USD 85. Gold closed at USD 2391. Nifty closed at 24323 vs prior week close of 24010. 10 Year G-SEC Yield is now at 7%.<\/span><\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Major developments<\/span><\/b>: USDINR traded in the 83.38-83.56 range last week, and Rupee declined 9 ps against USD w\/w. EUR climbed 1.25% w\/w and GBP climbed 1.12 w\/w against Rupee.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Indian benchmark Equity climbed 1.30% w\/w. 10 Year G-SEC Yield closed at 7%. 1-year fwd premia is at 1.63% p.a.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

FX reserves stood at USD 652 bn, as on June 28 th. Reserves declined by US D 1.73 bn w\/w.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

<\/a>In July , FPI\u2019S have bought Rs 6408 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 4097 Cr of debt . In\u00a0<\/span><\/b>FY 23-24, FII\u2019S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Indian June GST collections climbed 7.7% y\/y to Rs 1.74 lac Cr.<\/span><\/b>\u00a0Indian June PMI(mfrg) rose to 58.3, up from 57.5 in May.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Indian Equities continued its climb despite caution from many quarters on valuations. Corporate result season has begun. Union budget is on July 22 nd. FII\u2019S and DII\u2019S continues to be on investment spree as macro indicators remain attractive despite frothy valuations in some sectors and stocks.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Rupee movement remains stuck in narrow range.\u00a0RBI has till now controlled USDINR movement in a very tight range. It has absorbed FX inflows and stemmed Rupee gains in the past. With USD stagnating against majors, it is difficult to build a bearish narrative for Rupee.\u00a0\u00a0USDINR could trade in the broad 82.95-83.70 range in coming period.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

<\/a>Focus is now on US rate path, and Union budget to be presented in July.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

<\/a><\/a>Hedging advise<\/b>: Imports be hedged on decline to 83.30. Exports be hedged in the 83.60+ range.<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Global developments<\/span><\/b><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a>:\u00a0<\/span><\/b><\/a><\/a><\/a>US macro indicators points to growth and labor markets cooling off, providing leeway for rate cut by Fed in Sept.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

US ISM \u2013 composite index slipped into contraction mode in June and for the full quarter it stood at 50.5.\u00a0Jobs market also showed tentative signs of moderation. US Non-Farm Payroll employment increased by 206k in June, above expectation of 180k. Growth was slightly lower than average monthly gain of 220k over the prior 12 months.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

However, prior month\u2019s growth was revised sharply lower from 272k to 218k. April\u2019s figure was also revised sharply lower by -57k to 165k. That is, April and May\u2019s combined downward revision was -111k.<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span>Unemployment rate ticked up from 4.0% to 4.1%, above expectation of holding steady at 4.0%.\u00a0Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% mom, matched expectations. Annual hourly earnings growth slowed from 4.0% yoy to 3.9% yoy.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

At the ECB forum, Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the \u201cquite a big of progress\u201d made in reducing inflation toward 2% target. He also acknowledged the recent inflation readings, stating, \u201cThe last reading and the one before it, to a lesser extent, suggest that we are getting back on the disinflationary path.\u201dPowell emphasized the need for Fed to be confident that inflation is sustainably moving toward the 2% target before considering policy easing.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

He also cautioned against premature rate cuts, \u201cWe\u2019re well aware that if we go too soon, we can undo the good work we\u2019ve done. If we do it too late, we could unnecessarily undermine the recovery and the expansion.\u201d<\/b><\/p>\r\n

USD fell against Euro as ECB members downplayed series of rate cuts.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

\u00a0ECB\u2019s June meeting minutes reveal that \u201calmost all members\u201d supported the 25bps rate cut. However, there was a significant \u201cdissenting view\u201d, arguing that recent data and ongoing inflationary risks \u201cdid not support the case for a rate cut\u201d.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

The dissenters pointed to \u201cstickiness\u201d in inflation and highlighted the risk that geopolitical factors could exacerbate inflation this \u201cstickiness\u201d.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

ECB President Christine Lagarde hinted that the central bank is not in a hurry to cut interest rates again following its initial rate cut in June. She highlighted that the central bank is facing \u201cseveral uncertainties\u201d concerning future inflation. These uncertainties primarily revolve around the dynamics of profits, wages, and productivity, and the potential impact of new supply-side shocks. Lagarde emphasized that it will take time to accumulate sufficient data to be confident that the \u201crisks of above-target inflation have passed.\u201d<\/span><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Focus is now on US CPI.<\/span><\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

Currency technical levels<\/b>: USDINR: 83.32 (Supports), 83.70 (resistance),<\/b><\/b><\/p>\r\n

EURINR:91(Resistance),89.70\/89.10(Support),<\/b><\/p>\r\n

GBPINR: Supports: 106\/105.20( supports), Resistance:107.40(Resistance).<\/b><\/p>\r\n

JPYINR: Resistance:52.70, Supports: 51.40 (support).<\/b><\/p>\r\n

Hedging advise<\/b>: USDINR imports be hedged on decline to 83.30. EUR nearby receivables be covered in the 90.50-91 zone. GBP receivables can be covered at 106.50+.<\/b><\/p>\r\n

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FX Weekly Currency Score Week 27 Weekly SYNOPSIS: 05\/07\/2024 Currency Map: Currency Pairs WEEK CLOSE PRIOR WEEK CLOSE % change USD\/INR 83.47 83.38 0.10 EUR\/INR 90.37 89.25 1.25 GBP\/INR 106.65 105.46 1.12 JPY\/INR 51.97 51.86 0.21 Brent Crude closed at USD 87 VS previous month close of USD 85. Gold closed at USD 2391. Nifty […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":6592,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"image","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6785","post","type-post","status-publish","format-image","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-currency-update","post_format-post-format-image"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6785","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6785"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6785\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8502,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6785\/revisions\/8502"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6592"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6785"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6785"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gwcindia.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6785"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}