FX – WEEKLY UPDATE :

Weekly SYNOPSIS: 14/11/2025

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Currency Map:

Currency Pairs	WEEK CLOSE	PRIOR WEEK CLOSE	% change
USD/INR	88.72	88.66	0.06
EUR/INR	103.31	102.30	0.98
GBP/INR	116.72	116.36	0.30
JPY/INR	57.44	57.81	-0.64

Brent Crude closed at USD 64.50 VS previous week close of USD 63.50. Gold closed at USD 4079. Nifty closed at 25910 vs prior week close of 25492. 10 Year G-SEC Yield is now at 6.52%.

Major developments: USDINR traded in the 88.53-88.75 range last week, and Rupee declined 6 ps against USD w/w. EUR climbed 0.98% w/w and GBP climbed 0.30% w/w against Rupee. USDINR fwd premia declined to 2.15% for 1 year.

Indian benchmark Equity indices climbed 1.63% w/w. 10 Year G-SEC Yield closed at 6.52%.

FX reserves stood at USD 687 bn, as on Nov 7 th. Reserves declined by 2.7 bn  w/w. Decline is reserves is due to fall in Gold and Currency revaluations.

In Nov, FII’S have bought Rs 1494 Cr of Indian Equities and have sold Rs 2198 cr of debt.

CPI inflation eased to 0.25% y-o-y in October vs 1.44% y-o-y in September (revised down from the earlier1.54%) on account of fall in food prices, GST rate cuts and favourable base-effect. This is the first month of CPI reading after GST rate cut. Food prices registered a sequential decline of 0.2%.Further fall in inflation gives space to RBI for rate reduction in next meeting.

RBI ‘s periodic intervention at around 88.80 levels is keeping Rupee weakness under check. FII sales seems to be abating as FII holdings in many have hit decade lows.

Nifty 50 stocks have reported 6.5% revenue growth y/y with net profit up 11.15% (for earnings till date).Mid cap stocks have reported 8.65% revenue growth with 22.5% jump in net profit. Small Cap stocks have reported 11.71% jump is revenue and 29.25% jump in net profit. With GST cuts, expect production ramp up in Q3. Auto companies are considering 40% ramp up in production.

Hope for Rupee strength is from a likely trade deal with US. Reduction in tariffs and parity with our competitors could bring back Indian exports to US to pre Aug levels. With Crude still declining and FII’S selling abating, Rupee could be lifted by the conclusion of trade deal with US and EU.

On the technical side, Rupee needs to break 88.35 to possibly gain to 88.95/88.70 levels. Bigger gains to 86.90 is possible, if 87.70 is also breached.

Important levels to watch are 88.35/87.95/87.70 on the downside and 88.85/89.15 on the upside.

Hedging advise: Export hedging can be done regularly.

Global developments: US Govt shutdown has ended and focus will be on economic data releases. US President said that US has suffered USD 1.7 trn cost for shutdown. US Tech shares clocked steep losses through October and early-November, amid growing questions over an AI-fueled valuation bubble in the sector.

Gold declined steeply and USD gained on expectations that Fed may be slow in cutting rates. Fed rate cut probability has declined. Risk aversion seems to be intensifying in AI stocks due to valuation concerns. With US Govt reopening, expect new economic releases to guide asset market movement in coming week.

UK economy barely grew in Q3, with GDP expanding just 0.1% qoq, below expectations for 0.2%, reinforcing concerns about stagnation as demand cools.

ECB Executive Board member said interest rates are “in a good place,” indicating no immediate need to shift policy as long as major shocks are avoided.

FOMC minutes and Global PMI data will be the focus of this week.

Currency technical levels: USDINR: 88.40/87.70 (Supports), 88.85 (resistance),

EURINR:101.60/100.75/99.60(Support), 103.45/104.40 (Resistance)

GBPINR: Supports: 115 (supports), Resistance:118.50

JPYINR: Resistance:58.75 Supports: 56.75 (support).