FX – WEEKLY UPDATE :

Weekly SYNOPSIS: 25/06/2026

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Currency Map:

Currency Pairs	WEEK  CLOSE	PRIOR WEEK CLOSE	% change
USD/INR	94.41	94.31	0.10
EUR/INR	107.36	108.03	-0.62
GBP/INR	124.49	124.60	-0.08
JPY/INR	58.38	58.55	-0.46

Brent Crude closed at USD 74 VS previous week close of USD 81. Gold closed at USD 4089. Nifty closed at 24056 vs prior week close of 24016. 10 Year G-SEC Yield is now at 6.77%.

Major developments: USDINR traded in the 94.14-94.90 range last week, and Rupee declined 10 ps w/w against USD. EUR declined 0.62% w/w and GBP declined 0.08% w/w against Rupee. USDINR fwd premia closed at 2.78% for 1 year.

Indian benchmark Equity indices closed flat w/w. 10 Year G-SEC Yield closed at 6.77%.

FX reserves stood at USD 672.58 bn, as on June 19 th. Reserves climbed USD 963 mn w/w.

In June, FII’S have sold Rs 31072 Cr of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 25267 cr of debt.

FII inflows into G-sec has increased significantly after Govt’s action of scrapping all taxes on FII investment in G-SEC. Debt market alone has attracted Rs 22000 Cr in June. FII selling in Equity markets has also tapered off.

Rupee has decoupled from Global FX movements and is aided by falling Crude prices and inflow of FCNR deposits. USDINR has formed an important top at 94.95. Expect gains to target 93.85. Downside break of 94.10 will imply that a very decisive top at 96.95 has been made.

Technically, USDINR has supports at 94.15/93.85 levels. Expect 93.85-95.80 range activity in coming months.  

Hedging advise: Hedging be done according to policy objectives.

Global developments: Dollar strength and shake up in Global tech stocks dominated market developments. USD climbed, aided by flight to safety. USD Index climbed to 101. Dollar continues to benefit from both safe-haven demand and expectations of tighter US monetary policy. Gold has declined below USD 4000 and Crude has declined further to USD 73. Progress in US-Iran talks and opening of Hormuz straits eased Oil prices and passage concerns.

US PCE price index rose 0.4% mom, slightly below the expected 0.5% increase, while the annual rate accelerated from 3.8% yoy to 4.1% yoy, matching expectations. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% mom as expected, lifting the annual rate from 3.3% yoy to 3.4% yoy, the highest since October 2023. The data suggest underlying inflation remains sticky despite some moderation in monthly price growth. However, PCE index has also moderated the most extreme case of two rate hikes this Year. This helped Crosses to pull back and Gold recovered from below USD 4000. US D gains held even as Yields declined due to falling Oil prices. Resilience in USD suggests that investors are viewing the Dollar’s advance as a broader trend rather than simply a reaction to changing Fed expectations.

US Nonfarm payrolls will guide market momentum in early July.

EUR/USD has broken the important support level of 1.14 and is headed to 1.12 levels.

US Tech led sell off dominated events. Korean market fell more than 10% and Nikkei crashed 3.5%. Indian tech stocks also faced big decline. Stretched valuations and leverage may have prompted the steep sell off.

Currency technical levels: USDINR: 94.10/93.85(support) , (Resistance) 94.95/95.45

EURINR:106.50(Support),  (Resistance): 109.50/110.30

GBPINR: Supports: 122.50(supports), Resistance:126.50/127.50

JPYINR: Resistance:59.70 Supports: 57.50 (support).