Budget highlights and FX Morning Updates :

USDINR opened at 91.89 on Friday and the pair traded in the 91.83-91.98 range. Spot USDINR closed at 91.89, loss of 7 ps for USD as compared to prior day close of 91.96.

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RBI reference rate was fixed at 91.89 on 30/01. Feb USD/INR closed at 92.04, loss of 4 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 92.08. Feb Euro/INR closed at 109.87, GBP/INR closed at 126.57. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.58% p.a.

FX reserves stood at USD 709.4 bn, as on Jan 23 rd. Reserves climbed 8 bn w/w.

PAIRS	RBI REF RATE (29/01)
USDINR	91.89
EURINR	109.56
GBPINR	126.38
JPYINR	59.72

In Jan 2026 tii date, FII’S have sold Rs 31393 Cr of Indian Equities and sold Rs 7259 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 98 points (0.39%) y’day. US S&P declined 30 points (0.43%) y’day . Nikkei climbed 0.03% and Hang send climbed 0.51% y’day..

Euro is now at 1.1850, Pound at 1.3689, Yen at 154.77.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 4865 and WT1Crude now at USD 65.20/Brent at USD 69.20.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.24% and 3 m SOFR closed at 3.67%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.69%.

Economic news: Increase in Capex to Rs 12.2 kac Cr, tax holiday to data centres and toll mfrg, high speed rail corridors, freight and rare earth corridors, reduction in fiscal deficit to 4.3%, bringing down debt to GDP to 55.6%, lower TCS on overseas tours and education, buy back taxation for non promoter shareholders at Captal gains rate, increase in defense expenditure by 9.2%, development of waterways, MSME support Equity fund of Rs 10000 Cr, increase in PLI scheme for semiconductors and electronic components manufacturing to Rs 40000Cr, development of bio pharma park, 3 dedicated chemical parks, 5 textile parks, focus on sports goods mfrg, new City economic regions, university townships in states, east coast industrial corridors, use of AI to help farming community, reduction in customs duty for personal baggage imports, support to fisheries and marine exports, new framework for corporate bonds, revised portfolio investment schemes for NRI’S. medical tourism hub, focus on self help group for women and stem education facilitation for girls with hostel facilities are highlights of FY 26-27 budget. There is also a formation of high level committee on banking to decide futuristic steps for Indian banking system. New IT act will come into force from April 1 st.

Increase in Gross borrowings to Rs 17.2 lac Cr and increase in STT on equity derivatives were negatives for bank stocks and Equity markets.

Jan GST collections climbed 6.2% to Rs 1.93 lac Cr.

US President nominated Kevin Marsh as new Fed Chairman. He is considered as hawkish and the choice surprised markets, considering Trump’s own view of lower interest rates. Cross Currencies declined and commodities tanked. Gold plunged 10% and Silver declined 30%, one of the highest volatile days in commodities trading. US Govt shutdown is also lingering. US-Iran tensions and tariff issues will not fade away fast. For the day, markets are calibrating direction of monetary policy under new Chairman, starting from May. The effect was seen in commodities sell off.

Commodities position was unwound rapidly as new Fed Chairman pick signalled continuation and restoration of institutional confidence. Hedging and speculative positions were liquidated, triggering massive downward movements in precious metals. Despite these developments, Dollar has failed to mount a convincing rebound.

Eurozone economy ended 2025 on slightly firmer footing, with GDP rising 0.3% qoq in Q4, modestly above expectations of 0.2%

Data highlights: – US PPI climbed 0.5% m/m.

-EU unemployment rate dipped to 6.2%.

Monday’s calendar: – US ISM(mfrg)

-EU PMI(mfrg)

-UK PMI(mfrg)

USD/INR			91.98	91.83
EUR/USD	1.1850		1.1976	1.1850
GBP/USD	1.3689		1.3817	1.3678
USD/JPY	154.77		154.81	152.87

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs	Pivot	R1	R2	R3	S1	S2	S3
EURO/USD	1.1892	1.1934	1.2018		1.1808	1.1766
USD/JPY	154.15	155.43	156.09		153.49	152.19
GBP/USD	1.3728	1.3778	1.3867		1.3639	1.3589
USD/INR	91.90	91.97	92.05		91.82	91.75

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair	Supports	Resistances	Trend	Remarks
EURO/USD	1.1760/1.1575	1.2070	UP	SIDE<1.1760
GBP/USD	1.3530	1.39	UP	SIDE<1.3530
USD/JPY	150.50	156.50	DOWN	SIDE>156.50
USD/INR	91.45/91.07	92.06	UP	SIDE<91
USD/CHF	0.7665	0.79	SIDE	UP>0.8040

Technicals: Spot closed above all major averages. 20 day moving average is at 90.80. 50 day moving average is at 90.20. 200 day moving average is at 87.72. Weekly trend is up. Important support is at 91.45/91.10 and important resistance is at 92.05. Spot closed below the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Feb contract are:

PP: 92.05, S1:91.97, S2:91.90, R1:92.12, R2:92.20.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above all major averages. Resistance is at 1.2070/1.2250. Next major support is at 1.1760. Daily trend is up and weekly trend is up.

GBP/USD: The pair is above major averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3325 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3325. Important support is at 1.3530. Important resistance is at 1.39.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 159.70. Important resistance is at 156.50  and support is at 150.40.