FX – WEEKLY UPDATE :

Weekly SYNOPSIS: 31/10/2025

Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!

Currency Map:

Currency Pairs	WEEK CLOSE	PRIOR WEEK CLOSE	% change
USD/INR	88.70	87.82	1.00
EUR/INR	102.67	101.78	0.87
GBP/INR	116.69	116.85	-0.13
JPY/INR	57.61	57.33	0.48

Brent Crude closed at USD 65 VS previous week close of USD 66. Gold closed at USD 4002 Nifty closed at 25722 vs prior week close of 25795. 10 Year G-SEC Yield is now at 6.52%.

Major developments: USDINR traded in the 87.87-88.77 range last week, and Rupee declined 88 ps against USD w/w. EUR climbed 0.87% w/w and GBP declined 0.13% w/w against Rupee.

Indian benchmark Equity indices declined 0.3% w/w. 10 Year G-SEC Yield closed at 6.52%.

USDINR fwd premia declined to 2.23% for 1 year.

FX reserves stood at USD 695.35 bn, as on Oct 24 th. Reserves declined by 6.92 bn  w/w.

In Oct, FII’S have bought Rs 18636 Cr of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 3614 cr of debt.

IIP climbed 4% in Sept 25 y/y.  IIP climbed 0.8% m/m. Aug data was revised to 4.1%. Q2 IIP climbed 4.1% as against 2% in Q1. Mfrg climbed 4.8%,power generation grew by 3.1%, mining contracted -0.4%. Infrastructure and Consumer durables sector led the mfrg growth.

Rupee reversed course swiftly on month end demand and hawkish comments by Fed. RBI intervened sporadically at 88.40 and later at 88.75 levels. There are growing signs of India-US trade deal conclusion before Nov end. Though there is no hint from Indian side, US approach on various issues hints at a trade deal conclusion soon.

Indian Corporate result season is going on and there is a strong possibility of earnings upgrades in coming two quarters.

Important levels to watch are 88.40/87.70 on the downside and 88.85/89.15 on the upside.

Hedging advise: Export hedging can be done regularly.

Global developments: Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, marking its second consecutive reduction, but signalled uncertainty about further easing.

USD gained as Fed members pushed back against further rate cuts, arguing that inflation is still high and economy is sound. For now, futures markets still assign about a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in December. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against expectations that another rate cut in December was assured, saying it was “far from” a foregone conclusion.

He cautioned that the central bank was “navigating in the fog,” citing mixed economic signals and uneven progress on inflation. The comments tempered optimism in markets that had priced in a follow-up reduction before year-end.

US-China agreed on a trade framework, easing concern over trade war escalation. China has agreed to ease controls on rare earth magnets and will buy US Soyabeans. US will slash tariffs on Chinese imports.

US Govt shutdown continued, impacting release of key data releases.

European Central Bank (ECB) held its Deposit Rate steady at 2.00% in monetary policy announcement, keeping its monetary policy stance on hold for the second meeting in a row. The accompanying statement was neutral in tone and offered little in the way of forward guidance on future policy moves.

Currency technical levels: USDINR: 88.40/87.70 (Supports), 88.85 (resistance),

EURINR:101.60/100.75(Support), 103.15 (Resistance)

GBPINR: Supports: 115 (supports), Resistance:118.50

JPYINR: Resistance:59.05 Supports: 57.30 (support).