FX – WEEKLY UPDATES :

Weekly SYNOPSIS: 11/07/2025

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Currency Map:

Currency Pairs	WEEK CLOSE	PRIOR WEEK CLOSE	% change
USD/INR	85.80	85.42	0.56
EUR/INR	100.28	100.60	-0.31
GBP/INR	116.28	116.78	-0.42
JPY/INR	58.45	59.18	-1.23

Brent Crude closed at USD 70 VS previous week close of USD 68.30. Gold closed at USD 3355. Nifty closed at 25149 vs prior month close of 25461. 10 Year G-SEC Yield is now at 6.32%.

Major developments: USDINR traded in the 85.51-86.03 range last week, and Rupee declined 38 ps against USD w/w. EUR declined 0.31% w/w and GBP declined 0.42% w/w against Rupee.

Indian benchmark Equity indices declined 1.22% w/w. 10 Year G-SEC Yield closed at 6.32%.

1-year fwd premia is at 1.98% p.a.

FX reserves stood at USD 699.7 bn, as on July 4 th. Reserves declined US D 3.05 bn w/w.

In July, FII’S bought 3009 Cr of Indian Equities and sold Rs 221  cr of debt.

Rupee swayed in a tight band, with mild weakness triggered by US President’s statement on imposing 10% additional tariffs on BRIC countries. Though, he has imposed tariffs on 23 economies, India is still to get a new tariff structure. India-US talks are still underway and a mini trade deal is likely before this month end.

Expect USDINR to be resisted in the 85.91-86.10 levels. Bigger resistance could be expected at 86.65 levels. Support is expected at 85.45/85.20 levels.

Expect USDINR to swing in the 85-86.30 zone in coming weeks.

Focus will be on CPI and IIP data.

Hedging advise: Imports can be hedged at 85.20/85 and exports can be hedged at 85.90-86.10 levels.

Global developments: FX market movement remains muted as markets show less interest in tariff moves. US President announced 25% tariff on Japan and Korean imports and 35% tariffs on Canada, in addition to existing sectoral tariffs. He also released tariffs on 23 economies. Brazil has been imposed 50%. Only India and EU are left out, pending negotiations.US President also announced a new 50% tariff on copper, and a delay in the threatened pharmaceutical tariff. Market reacted more calmly to the new tariff announcements compared to the sharp drops seen after April’s “Liberation Day,” when major indexes had their worst weekly losses in nearly six years. Minutes from the June 17-18 Fed meeting released on Wednesday showed that while most committee members favor delaying cuts until there’s more certainty on the inflation and labor market impacts.

ECB Chief Economist said that the recent 25bps rate cut was necessary to prevent temporary inflation undershoots from becoming persistent. Speaking about the June policy decision, he emphasized the influence of falling energy prices, a stronger Euro, and a deteriorating materially changed outlook on ECB’s latest projections.

Focus will be on US inflation data.

Currency technical levels: USDINR: 85.45/85.20 (Supports), 85.90/86.10 (resistance),

EURINR:99.55(Support), 102.35 (Resistance)

GBPINR: Supports: 114.70( supports), Resistance:118.

JPYINR: Resistance:59.20/60.25 Supports: 57.20 (support).