Nifty Outlook – August Recap & September 2025 Forecast

Review – August 2025

Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!

Indian equities wrapped up August on a mixed and volatile note, reflecting a tussle between domestic resilience and global uncertainties.

Nifty started August on a cautious note amidst FII outflows and weak global cues, recovered mid-month on Banking, Auto and Capital Goods strength, but gains were capped as IT, Pharma and Export oriented stocks faced pressure from domestic and global macroeconomic headwinds.

Key dates such as August 1, 8, 11, and 12 proved pivotal, driving the market to swing on both sides.

Nifty ended August about 1% lower, aligning with our forecast that had assigned a 40% probability to such a close.

The month of August shaped up as a consolidation phase, with a flat to slightly volatile trend being the key takeaway for traders.

Outlook – September 2025

Unlike the usual trend of heightened activity, September is expected to see the Nifty and Sensex trade with relatively lower volatility and sideways action, though a rare large move could still emerge and surprise sentiment.

Major occurrences to influence markets

1. Domestic Policy Updates – GST Reforms could sway market sentiments.

2. Monsoon Progress & Rural Demand – Rainfall patterns and their impact on agri output could influence consumption stocks.

3. Early Q2 FY26 Sectoral Updates – Management commentary and business data from Auto, Banking, Capital Goods, and more may guide sector-specific sentiment.

Key Forecasts on Nifty

Predicted High: 24672 to 24850

Predicted Low: 24180 to 23870

Expected Close: 24280 to 24573

Behaviourally Significant Dates

September 1, 2, 16, 30

* Technical Levels – Nifty

Zone Levels

Immediate Support 24100

Major Support 23700

Immediate Resistance 24700

Major Resistance 25150

Closing Forecast – September 2025

September carries a near 50–50 probability of ending around ±0.6% on a net basis, with only a rare chance of gains beyond 1% largely hinging on the upcoming GST policy announcement.

During the month’s fluctuations, the Nifty might reach 25150 as its highest point and 23700 as its lowest one.

Conclusion

Following a mixed August, investor sentiment remains cautious amid global uncertainties and pending domestic policy decisions. September is expected to be largely sideways, with muted activity dominating, while the GST policy announcement remains the key catalyst that could trigger sharper moves for investors and traders.

*gwcindia.in/disclaimer/